NFL Predictions 2026: Every Team’s Over/Under Win Totals, 3 Take It To The Bank Best Bets
It is that time of year – NFL predictions are running rampant! T-minus 3 days and counting until the NFL season kickoff from Seattle, when the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks host the AFC champion New England Patriots.
While we will once again have our weekly picks for college (we are already off to a 2-0 start to the season!) and pro football, we are thinking long-term right now. That’s right, it is time for our prop bet specials.
NFL predictions – 3 teams that will surprise
If you are a true gambler, you know one thing – dogs win! Let’s be honest. If the favorites always won, why would you work? You could be a professional gambler. Just bet the favorite – collect – repeat.
If it were only that easy.
That’s why I like looking beyond the obvious favorites when making my NFL predictions. Every year, there are teams that outperform their expectations, teams that fall flat after a promising season, and a few that make us look back in December and say, “How the hell did we not see that coming?“
So, as we head into the 2026 NFL season, I’ve got three teams that I believe could surprise the football world.
Two of them are teams I believe will be playing in the postseason.
The third?
I’m betting against them.
Let’s get into it.
SURPRISE TEAM #1: New York Jets – OVER 5.5 Wins
Yes, I’m buying the Jets.
I’m not saying New York is suddenly going to become the class of the AFC. Far from it. I am saying I think the Jets are being overlooked—and that’s exactly the type of team I want to investigate before the season begins.
The Jets don’t need to become a juggernaut overnight. They just need to be better than the market expects.
And that’s where I see the opportunity. The AFC is loaded, which means getting into the playoffs won’t be easy. However, I am banking on a division that I think will be a bit weaker than anticipated. I’m not buying the Dolphins or even that New England will win 10 games this season. That leaves the Bills.
Buffalo is stacked. We all know that. I just love this Jets team to make some noise – and I really love them at +700 to make the playoffs!
Pick – Over 5.5 wins
SURPRISE TEAM #2: Dallas Cowboys – OVER 9.5 Wins
Okay, this one may not be considered a surprise to many. I have never been a huge fan of the Boys or Dak Prescott. That is changing. The more I look at this roster, the more I think these guys will win the NFC East. The defense they are building in Big D should be one of the best in the NFC, and I think they will give the Eagles all they can handle this season.
Pick – Over 9.5 wins
SURPRISE TEAM #3: Chicago Bears UNDER 9.5 Wins
Chicago was one of the great stories of last season. The Bears had a terrific run, expectations have climbed, and suddenly they’re being looked at as a team that could take another step forward.
I’m not convinced.
In fact, I’m predicting the opposite. I don’t think the Bears make the playoffs.
This is one of my favorite types of NFL predictions because it goes against the natural tendency to assume that a successful season automatically leads to another successful season. The Bears had their best season in a long, long time. However, they finished the year 0-2 vs the Lions – the team I believe will win the North this year.
Pick – Under 9.5 wins
Here is a look at every team’s Over/Under win totals heading into Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
🏈 2026 NFL Win Totals — All 32 Teams
| Team | Win Total |
|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 9.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 |
| New York Giants | 7.5 |
| New York Jets | 5.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 |
Source: SportsBettingDime’s September 5 market update.
🔥 The big numbers
Highest win totals
- Ravens — 11.5
- Rams — 11.5
- Bills — 10.5
- Bengals — 10.5
- Lions — 10.5
- Packers — 10.5
- Chiefs — 10.5
- Chargers — 10.5
- Eagles — 10.5
- 49ers — 10.5
- Seahawks — 10.5
Lowest
Raiders — 6.5
Dolphins — 3.5
Cardinals — 4.5
Browns — 5.5
Jets — 5.5
Titans — 6.5
